TITLE: LOCAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL FLOOD RISK PROJECTIONS AT Mumbles FORMAT: Tab-delimited text (open/import from within spreadsheet software) Water level station ID: psmsl1732 (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) Global sea level rise model used: Kopp et al. (2014): Probabilistic model Adjustments to localize sea level rise projections: Kopp et al. 2014 CONTENTS * Header material: Sources; Critical Notes; Details; Citation; Disclaimer; Table Key * Current and Historic Flood Risk * Table 0: Local Sea Level Rise Projections * Tables 1-8: Local Flood Risk Projections at 0.5-10 m. (a) Multi-year Risk; and (b) Single-year Risk. SOURCES * Findings from Surging Seas at http://riskfinder.org/, a project of the sea level program at Climate Central (http://climatecentral.org/) * Global sea level rise model: Kopp et al. (2014). Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth's Future, 2(8), 383-406. * Methods to localize sea level rise projections: Kopp et al. (2014). Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth's Future, 2(8), 383-406. * Methods for local flood risk projections (1): Tebaldi C, Strauss BH & Zervas CE (2012). Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1), 014032. * Methods for local flood risk projections (2): http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/research/methods/estimating-chances-and-timing-of-flood-levels1/ * Water level station data: NOAA (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/). Hourly data from 1923 to 2015. * More details at http://riskfinder.org/, including linked reports and scientific papers. CRITICAL NOTES * Water level station projections are indicators of area local flood risk, but flood patterns vary from place to place. * Flood risk estimates are based on sea level rise projections combined with historic patterns of storm surge and tide. * Potential changes in future storm patterns are not accounted for, but would further affect risk. * Natural variability will cause annual and longer term sea level fluctuations, contributing to departures from projections. * Listed multi-year flood risk estimates cover 2016 through the year listed in the table. * Listed flood heights are measured relative to station high tide line (Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)) * MHHW is defined for the 1983-2001 national tidal epoch (it is a fixed reference even as sea levels rise). DETAILS * File creation date: Wed Oct 30 2024 * File name: psmsl1732.BK.txt * File URL: http://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/api/forecast/tidegauge/psmsl1732/BK?type=forecast-xls&slrdb=true CITATION Climate Central (2016). Local sea level rise and coastal flood risk projections at Mumbles Retrieved from Surging Seas Risk Finder: http://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/api/forecast/tidegauge/psmsl1732/BK?type=forecast-xls&slrdb=true DISCLAIMER All content found herein is provided solely for personal informational purposes and is provided "AS-IS." You acknowledge and agree that your use and possession of this content is subject to, and you agree to the provisions set forth in, Climate Central's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy (both at https://www.climatecentral.org/about/legal/) and Surging Seas Disclaimer (http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/about/disclaimer/). TABLE KEY Flood likelihoods range from 0 (0%) to essentially 1 (100%). Header Description BK_RCP26_p05 Probabilistic model low-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming aggressive carbon pollution cuts. BK_RCP26_p50 Probabilistic model mid-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming aggressive carbon pollution cuts. BK_RCP26_p95 Probabilistic model high-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming aggressive carbon pollution cuts. BK_RCP45_p05 Probabilistic model low-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming moderately strong carbon pollution cuts. BK_RCP45_p50 Probabilistic model mid-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming moderately strong carbon pollution cuts. BK_RCP45_p95 Probabilistic model high-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming moderately strong carbon pollution cuts. BK_RCP85_p05 Probabilistic model low-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming high carbon pollution (current trend continued) BK_RCP85_p50 Probabilistic model mid-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming high carbon pollution (current trend continued). BK_RCP85_p95 Probabilistic model high-sensitivity sea level projection, assuming high carbon pollution (current trend continued). HISTORIC AND CURRENT FLOOD RISK * The statistical estimates below are based on extreme value analysis of station.historical station hourly water level data. * Extreme flood (estimated 1% annual likelihood): Not available * Moderate flood (estimated 10% annual likelihood): 1.9 m * Mild flood (expected on average once per year): 1.6 m * Mild, moderate or extreme flood heights can be added to sea level rise projections for projections of corresponding future flood heights. TABLE 0: LOCAL SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS (M) (BASELINE YEAR, 1992) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.01 0.07 0.14 0.00 0.07 0.15 2030 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.05 0.12 0.20 2040 0.06 0.17 0.28 0.08 0.17 0.26 0.09 0.18 0.28 2050 0.08 0.21 0.35 0.11 0.22 0.35 0.11 0.25 0.39 2060 0.12 0.25 0.42 0.13 0.28 0.44 0.16 0.32 0.50 2070 0.14 0.29 0.48 0.15 0.33 0.54 0.21 0.40 0.61 2080 0.16 0.32 0.55 0.18 0.38 0.63 0.25 0.47 0.74 2090 0.16 0.36 0.65 0.21 0.43 0.72 0.29 0.56 0.89 2100 0.15 0.38 0.74 0.24 0.48 0.83 0.30 0.63 1.05 2110 0.22 0.45 0.86 0.22 0.54 0.98 0.43 0.71 1.14 2120 0.21 0.48 0.98 0.22 0.58 1.10 0.47 0.78 1.30 2130 0.20 0.51 1.11 0.21 0.62 1.22 0.49 0.87 1.49 2140 0.19 0.54 1.24 0.22 0.66 1.37 0.51 0.95 1.68 2150 0.18 0.58 1.39 0.23 0.71 1.51 0.54 1.04 1.89 2160 0.16 0.62 1.55 0.23 0.75 1.66 0.57 1.13 2.09 2170 0.14 0.65 1.70 0.20 0.80 1.83 0.61 1.22 2.30 2180 0.11 0.68 1.87 0.17 0.84 2.00 0.63 1.30 2.52 2190 0.08 0.71 2.04 0.15 0.89 2.19 0.64 1.38 2.75 2200 0.06 0.75 2.24 0.13 0.93 2.37 0.65 1.47 2.99 TABLE 1A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 0.5 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2030 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2040 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2050 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2060 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2070 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2080 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2090 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2110 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2120 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2130 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2140 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2150 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2160 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2170 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2180 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2190 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2200 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 1B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 0.5 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2030 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2040 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2050 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2060 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2070 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2080 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2090 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2110 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2120 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2130 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2140 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2150 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2160 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2170 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2180 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2190 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2200 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 2A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 1 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2030 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2040 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2050 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2060 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2070 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2080 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2090 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2110 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2120 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2130 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2140 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2150 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2160 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2170 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2180 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2190 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2200 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 2B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 1 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 2030 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 2040 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 2050 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 2060 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2070 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2080 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2090 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2100 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2110 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2120 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2130 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2140 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2150 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2160 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2170 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2180 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2190 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2200 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 3A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 1.5 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2030 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2040 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2050 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2060 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2070 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2080 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2090 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2110 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2120 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2130 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2140 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2150 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2160 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2170 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2180 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2190 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2200 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 3B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 1.5 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.77 0.82 0.86 0.76 0.82 0.87 0.75 0.82 0.87 2030 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.79 0.86 0.90 0.79 0.86 0.91 2040 0.81 0.89 0.94 0.83 0.89 0.93 0.83 0.90 0.94 2050 0.83 0.91 0.96 0.85 0.91 0.95 0.85 0.93 0.96 2060 0.85 0.93 0.97 0.86 0.93 0.97 0.88 0.95 0.98 2070 0.87 0.94 0.98 0.88 0.95 0.98 0.91 0.96 0.99 2080 0.88 0.95 0.98 0.89 0.96 0.99 0.93 0.98 0.99 2090 0.88 0.96 0.99 0.91 0.97 0.99 0.94 0.98 1.00 2100 0.88 0.96 0.99 0.92 0.98 1.00 0.94 0.99 1.00 2110 0.91 0.97 1.00 0.91 0.98 1.00 0.97 0.99 1.00 2120 0.91 0.98 1.00 0.91 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 2130 0.90 0.98 1.00 0.91 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 2140 0.90 0.98 1.00 0.91 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 2150 0.89 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.99 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 2160 0.88 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.99 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2170 0.87 0.99 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2180 0.85 0.99 1.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2190 0.83 0.99 1.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2200 0.81 0.99 1.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 TABLE 4A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 2 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.10 0.22 0.40 0.08 0.24 0.48 0.07 0.24 0.50 2030 0.34 0.67 0.90 0.31 0.70 0.94 0.29 0.70 0.95 2040 0.58 0.93 1.00 0.60 0.94 1.00 0.60 0.95 1.00 2050 0.77 0.99 1.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 2060 0.91 1.00 1.00 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.00 2070 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2080 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2090 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2110 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2120 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2130 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2140 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2150 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2160 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2170 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2180 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2190 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2200 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 4B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 2 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.02 0.06 0.15 2030 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.04 0.11 0.23 0.04 0.12 0.24 2040 0.05 0.18 0.39 0.07 0.19 0.36 0.07 0.21 0.40 2050 0.07 0.26 0.53 0.09 0.28 0.52 0.10 0.33 0.59 2060 0.11 0.34 0.63 0.12 0.38 0.67 0.16 0.47 0.75 2070 0.14 0.41 0.72 0.16 0.48 0.79 0.25 0.60 0.85 2080 0.17 0.48 0.80 0.21 0.58 0.86 0.34 0.71 0.92 2090 0.17 0.54 0.88 0.25 0.65 0.92 0.41 0.80 0.96 2100 0.15 0.58 0.92 0.32 0.73 0.95 0.44 0.86 0.98 2110 0.28 0.68 0.96 0.28 0.79 0.98 0.65 0.91 0.99 2120 0.26 0.72 0.98 0.27 0.83 0.99 0.71 0.94 1.00 2130 0.23 0.76 0.99 0.26 0.86 0.99 0.73 0.96 1.00 2140 0.22 0.79 0.99 0.27 0.89 1.00 0.76 0.97 1.00 2150 0.20 0.83 1.00 0.29 0.91 1.00 0.78 0.98 1.00 2160 0.17 0.86 1.00 0.29 0.93 1.00 0.82 0.99 1.00 2170 0.14 0.87 1.00 0.24 0.94 1.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 2180 0.10 0.89 1.00 0.18 0.95 1.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 2190 0.07 0.91 1.00 0.15 0.96 1.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 2200 0.05 0.93 1.00 0.13 0.97 1.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 TABLE 5A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 2.5 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.06 2070 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.47 2080 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.00 0.04 0.95 2090 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.00 0.01 0.97 0.00 0.26 1.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.00 0.70 1.00 2110 0.00 0.02 1.00 0.00 0.26 1.00 0.01 0.96 1.00 2120 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.00 0.56 1.00 0.06 1.00 1.00 2130 0.00 0.22 1.00 0.00 0.83 1.00 0.15 1.00 1.00 2140 0.00 0.40 1.00 0.00 0.97 1.00 0.28 1.00 1.00 2150 0.00 0.65 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.45 1.00 1.00 2160 0.00 0.87 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.66 1.00 1.00 2170 0.00 0.97 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 2180 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.00 2190 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 2200 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 5B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 2.5 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 2070 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.10 2080 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.01 0.31 2090 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.05 0.59 2100 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.01 0.49 0.00 0.13 0.79 2110 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.03 0.72 0.00 0.25 0.87 2120 0.00 0.01 0.73 0.00 0.07 0.84 0.01 0.40 0.94 2130 0.00 0.02 0.85 0.00 0.11 0.91 0.01 0.55 0.98 2140 0.00 0.04 0.92 0.00 0.18 0.96 0.02 0.69 0.99 2150 0.00 0.07 0.96 0.00 0.26 0.98 0.03 0.79 1.00 2160 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.00 0.34 0.99 0.06 0.87 1.00 2170 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.00 0.43 1.00 0.10 0.91 1.00 2180 0.00 0.20 1.00 0.00 0.51 1.00 0.12 0.94 1.00 2190 0.00 0.26 1.00 0.00 0.59 1.00 0.14 0.96 1.00 2200 0.00 0.33 1.00 0.00 0.66 1.00 0.15 0.98 1.00 TABLE 6A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 3 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.66 2120 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.99 2130 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 1.00 2140 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.02 1.00 2150 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.19 1.00 2160 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.66 1.00 2170 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.97 1.00 2180 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 2190 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 2200 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.02 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 TABLE 6B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 3 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.14 2120 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.43 2130 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.73 2140 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.89 2150 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.04 0.96 2160 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.00 0.13 0.99 2170 0.00 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.00 0.28 1.00 2180 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.43 1.00 2190 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.58 1.00 2200 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.71 1.00 TABLE 7A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 5 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2120 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2140 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2150 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2170 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2180 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2190 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 TABLE 7B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 5 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2120 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2140 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2150 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2170 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2180 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2190 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 TABLE 8A: PROJECTED MULTI-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 10 m (MHHW) (START YEAR, 2016) End Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2120 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2140 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2150 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2170 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2180 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2190 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TABLE 8B: PROJECTED SINGLE-YEAR LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODS EXCEEDING 10 m (MHHW) Year BK_RCP26_p05 BK_RCP26_p50 BK_RCP26_p95 BK_RCP45_p05 BK_RCP45_p50 BK_RCP45_p95 BK_RCP85_p05 BK_RCP85_p50 BK_RCP85_p95 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2120 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2140 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2150 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2170 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2180 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2190 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00