==========================================================================
EXPERIMENT B STAGE 1 -- repaired-instrument maxScore probe
* = pre-registered tau level
==========================================================================

### full.json -- all 150 items  (n=150)
  min=0.000156541  p05=0.0065  p25=0.4440  median=0.8964  p75=0.9839  p95=0.9992  max=0.9999
  mean=0.6856  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/150    0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10      24/150    0.1600  [0.1067, 0.2200]
    0.22      27/150    0.1800  [0.1200, 0.2467] *
    0.35      34/150    0.2267  [0.1600, 0.3000] *
    0.50      40/150    0.2667  [0.1933, 0.3400]
    0.70      60/150    0.4000  [0.3267, 0.4800]
    0.90      75/150    0.5000  [0.4200, 0.5800]

### full.json -- tier=critical subset  (n=31)
  min=0.0154787  p05=0.0186  p25=0.2607  median=0.8081  p75=0.9819  p95=0.9969  max=0.9997
  mean=0.6276  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/31     0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10       5/31     0.1613  [0.0323, 0.3226]
    0.22       6/31     0.1935  [0.0645, 0.3548] *
    0.35       9/31     0.2903  [0.1290, 0.4516] *
    0.50      10/31     0.3226  [0.1613, 0.4839]
    0.70      15/31     0.4839  [0.3226, 0.6774]
    0.90      17/31     0.5484  [0.3548, 0.7419]

### full.json -- tier=standard subset  (n=119)
  min=0.000156541  p05=0.0019  p25=0.4975  median=0.9049  p75=0.9876  p95=0.9992  max=0.9999
  mean=0.7007  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/119    0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10      19/119    0.1597  [0.0924, 0.2269]
    0.22      21/119    0.1765  [0.1092, 0.2437] *
    0.35      25/119    0.2101  [0.1429, 0.2857] *
    0.50      30/119    0.2521  [0.1765, 0.3361]
    0.70      45/119    0.3782  [0.2857, 0.4706]
    0.90      58/119    0.4874  [0.3950, 0.5798]

### full.json -- ANSWERABLE items (expect_refusal falsy)  (n=124)
  min=0.000762675  p05=0.0325  p25=0.6835  median=0.9394  p75=0.9885  p95=0.9992  max=0.9999
  mean=0.7963  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/124    0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10       8/124    0.0645  [0.0242, 0.1129]
    0.22       9/124    0.0726  [0.0323, 0.1210] *
    0.35      14/124    0.1129  [0.0565, 0.1694] *
    0.50      19/124    0.1532  [0.0968, 0.2177]
    0.70      34/124    0.2742  [0.2016, 0.3548]
    0.90      49/124    0.3952  [0.3065, 0.4839]

### full.json -- expect_refusal items  (n=26)
  min=0.000156541  p05=0.0004  p25=0.0155  median=0.0402  p75=0.2607  p95=0.5253  max=0.5320
  mean=0.1576  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/26     0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10      16/26     0.6154  [0.4231, 0.8077]
    0.22      18/26     0.6923  [0.5000, 0.8462] *
    0.35      20/26     0.7692  [0.5769, 0.9231] *
    0.50      21/26     0.8077  [0.6538, 0.9615]
    0.70      26/26     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]
    0.90      26/26     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]

### negatives-tiered.json -- all 30 (NOT the pre-registered set)  (n=30)
  min=0.000205112  p05=0.0002  p25=0.0028  median=0.0079  p75=0.0307  p95=0.5566  max=0.7188
  mean=0.0849  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/30     0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10      25/30     0.8333  [0.7000, 0.9667]
    0.22      26/30     0.8667  [0.7333, 0.9667] *
    0.35      27/30     0.9000  [0.7667, 1.0000] *
    0.50      28/30     0.9333  [0.8333, 1.0000]
    0.70      29/30     0.9667  [0.9000, 1.0000]
    0.90      30/30     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]

### negatives-tiered.json -- tier=critical 15 (PRE-REGISTERED ANALYSIS SET)  (n=15)
  min=0.000205112  p05=0.0002  p25=0.0032  median=0.0080  p75=0.0267  p95=0.0527  max=0.0527
  mean=0.0145  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/15     0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]
    0.22      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000] *
    0.35      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000] *
    0.50      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]
    0.70      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]
    0.90      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]

### negatives-tiered.json -- tier=standard 15 (run, not analysed as binary refusals)  (n=15)
  min=0.000237815  p05=0.0002  p25=0.0022  median=0.0069  p75=0.3029  p95=0.7188  max=0.7188
  mean=0.1554  n_empty_rerank=0
     tau   gate fires     rate         95% bootstrap
    0.00       0/15     0.0000  [0.0000, 0.0000] *
    0.10      10/15     0.6667  [0.4000, 0.8667]
    0.22      11/15     0.7333  [0.4667, 0.9333] *
    0.35      12/15     0.8000  [0.6000, 1.0000] *
    0.50      13/15     0.8667  [0.6667, 1.0000]
    0.70      14/15     0.9333  [0.8000, 1.0000]
    0.90      15/15     1.0000  [1.0000, 1.0000]

==========================================================================
SPURIOUS vs CORRECT firing at the pre-registered levels
==========================================================================
     tau     spurious (answerable gated)     correct (critical negs gated)
    0.35          14/124  = 0.1129              15/15   = 1.0000
    0.22           9/124  = 0.0726              15/15   = 1.0000
    0.00           0/124  = 0.0000               0/15   = 0.0000
